Alert for Price Spikes (ALPS)
The Alert for Price Spikes (ALPS) is used to detect abnormally high food prices.
The indicator is constructed as the gap between observed prices and their long-term seasonal trend. Thresholds are defined to characterize the situation on a given market: normal - stress - alert - crisis.
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The projected price for the next 6 months is calculated based on the whole time series including the latest data available (OCT 2016) and is subject to changes as new data comes in.